The UK Gambling Commission (UKGC) has acknowledged that it is “not yet in a position to make a robust and reliable estimate” of the size of the country’s illegal gambling market. The admission came in the fourth and final report of its research series on unlicensed online gambling, which brings together extensive analysis on consumer behaviour, market risks and enforcement activity.
The report titled “Estimating the Size of the Illegal Online Gambling Market”, highlights the inherent difficulties of tallying up the amount of non UKGC casinos. While the Commission recognises the importance of understanding the market’s scale for shaping policy and enforcement, it notes that reliable data is scarce and often depends on assumptions that weaken confidence in any single figure.
The UKGC compared these challenges to those faced by other government agencies who attempt to measure illicit trades, such as the illegal tobacco market. The regulator said that despite the lack of a definite estimate its work has significantly expanded the evidence base and improved insight into the behaviours driving participation in unlicensed gambling.
The research found that the motives for people engaging with illegal gambling sites are varied and complex. Some consumers use unlicensed operators without even realising they are doing so which the UKGC says is an issue and underscores the need for clearer public awareness and education on the matter. Others deliberately turn to such platforms after being self-excluded or otherwise restricted from the regulated market for reasons out of their control as well as being unwilling to show personal finances.
What is crucial is the Commission’s findings show no evidence of sustained growth in illegal gambling participation where reliable data is available. However, it cautioned that the threat remains serious and evolving, requiring constant vigilance and coordinated disruption effort.
The UKGC has been working closely with law enforcement agencies, financial institutions and also international partners to identify and disrupt illegal operators. These efforts include blocking financial transactions, removing illegal advertising and sharing intelligence across borders to limit the accessibility of unlawful gambling sites.
UKGC Chief Executive Andrew Rhodes stressed that the black market continues to pose a significant risk to consumers and the integrity of the licensed sector. While he acknowledged the difficulty of quantifying the problem, he said the regulator’s understanding has improved, enhancing its ability to target and dismantle illegal operations.
Rhodes also pointed to the value of independent research which strengthens the evidence base and increases transparency. He emphasised that tackling illegal gambling requires ongoing collaboration across government departments, digital platforms and the financial system. “Combating this issue is a shared responsibility,” he said, noting that coordinated efforts are essential to protect consumers and maintain public confidence in the regulated market.
Although this publication concludes the current four-part research series, the UKGC confirmed that further updates will follow as its work continues. The initiative marks an important step in reinforcing the UK’s regulatory framework and deepening understanding of a hidden but persistent threat to consumers.
By acknowledging the limits of current data while advancing research and partnerships, the Commission aims to ensure that the UK’s gambling market remains safe, fair and regulated even in the face of challenges that exist beyond the reach of formal oversight.